by Wilson McShane
The final dance has arrived this weekend in a consecutive COVID ruled season, between the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.The battle of hunger versus experience will be something to remember, as these sides compete for silverware on Saturday. Prior to the preliminary finals Geelong and Port Adelaide supporters had one finger on the Qantas app ready to book flights to Perth. However, it was through the sheer desperation and hunger, that Melbourne and the Dogs cruised to 71- and 83-point victories, securing a deserving spot in the Grand Final. As such, the battle between these sides is poised to be scintillating as both teams enter in arguably season best form.
Despite lockdown in Victoria, COVID restrictions will not be enough to control the ecstasy of Doggies supporters as they will cover the streets of Footscray in red, white and blue. As the Dogs prepare for the biggest game of the year, they will be looking to defy controversial words of Kane Cornes, “they have cost themselves a premiership… it is one of the greatest chokes of all time.” This will make Dees fans anxious, as the Dog’s love challenging situations. In a COVID riddled season, where they were pipped out of the top 4 and lost their key forward to injury, one would think it impossible to win a grand final from such a position. Yet, this is what they thrive in. This is what coach Luke Beveridge live for… a scrap.
The Bulldogs midfield coupled with their defensive half have been the two key sources to their success. With the AFL’s Rolls Royce, Bontempelli, the scrapper, Liberatore and beautiful left footer, Jack Macrae, the Dogs have swiftly transitioned the ball to their forward half. These players are in the top 10 for clearances and ranking points, and top 12 for contested possessions. Bontempelli and Macrae are also in the top 10 for inside 50s and disposals. Therefore, the contest will likely be won or lost in the middle as Melbourne’s elite midfielders of Gawn, Oliver and Petracca also share very similar statistics, hence their collective Brownlow tally of 70 votes.
Moreover, Beveridge will be impressed with the strength of his defense. While the Dog’s play a relatively shorter backline, they have quality ball users. In Hawthorn’s peak between 2013-15, this was a major strength of theirs. Beveridge has cultivated this strategy as Daniel, Dale, Duryea and Wood are all phenomenal ball users. In the preliminary final the players collectively went at 75 per cent. In a final and the difficulty of their disposals, this is a very high number.
In contrast the Melbourne have been close to faultless this year. After winning their first 10 straight games of the season, analytics were skeptical whether they could maintain the same energy, throughout the remainder of the season. While they did lose games by the end, they are once again hitting season best form. In their finals thus far, they are yet to be challenged defeating Brisbane in a comfortable 33-point victory and Geelong by a whooping 83 points. Subsequently, this will be fascinating how Melbourne can react to a Dogs challenge.
What will be pleasing for coach Simon Goodwin is his defense. Melbourne play a consistent zone, which forces teams to kick the ball down the line. This works into their favor as Lever, May and Salem can easily shut the ball off. Subsequently, they are all in the leaderboard for intercept possessions racking up a total of 528. Similar to the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne’s defensive powerhouse is coupled with their midfield strength as Oliver, Gawn and Petracca all possess a rare match winning ability. As a result, Melbourne’s hunger to break a 56-year premiership drought will overwhelm a fighting Dogs outfit, despite a close game. Melbourne by 13-24 points
